March 29, 2019

Brief Market Comment

By Joel Malick, Strategic Financial Partners

Throughout the year we will attend a few high-quality educational conventions. We thought you might enjoy a sampling of some of the interesting data discussed. We will unpack two brief topics:

 A Case for Staying Invested

There were 672 months from 1/1/62 to 12/31/18. The S&P500 which represents 500 publicly traded companies as a general gauge of the investment market, would have grown a $1 investment to $195! If you chose to play it safe and purchase US Treasury Bonds your $1 grew to $13.65. Now, if you simply panicked and happened to miss the top 10 months (out of 672) your return was reduced by more than 2/3rds! No one can predict the good months or good days for that matter. In fact, we don’t need to look back very far to identify a recent moment where a few great months didn’t seem probable following a nasty quarter; Jan and Feb of this year.

Let’s take a quick look at the delta from being out of the market for just 10 days during each decade going back to 1930. Just look at the total cumulative return difference. Therefore, we never stop telling people to stay the course, the costs are simply too high to let your emotions lead the way.

The Longer the Time Horizon the Lower the Risk of Loss

In any one year the stock market can have wide ranging returns. We have a little saying in our office, “when it comes to the stock market, time can heal all wounds.” The following graph shows the probability of loss as you add some more time to the recipe.

We hope you found this information to be interesting and useful.  We’re always on the lookout for unbiased information that can make your journey smoother and more successful.

 

Joel Malick currently maintains the Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF®) and Accredited Wealth Management Advisor (AWMA®) designations. Joel and his team at Strategic Financial Partners recognize that running this race for the long term is one of the greatest challenges you’ll face in your lifetime.  Thus, they combine critical planning and investment strategies with real life perspectives. Their consultation is provided at no additional cost to 403(b) Alliance Retirement Plan participants.


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